NaClhv

Theology, philosophy, science, math, and random other things
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  
June 28, 2016
Bayesian evaluation for the likelihood of Christ's resurrection (Part 15)

Here is yet another example from which we can empirically derive the Bayes' factor for a human testimony. The September 11 terrorist attacks killed about 3000 people. It is the worst terrorist attack in world history to date. As such, it caused a great deal of shared grief and an outpouring of sympathy for the […]

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June 21, 2016
Bayesian evaluation for the likelihood of Christ's resurrection (Part 14)

We are calculating empirical values for the Bayes' factor of a sincere, personal human testimony. Several lines of calculations have all converged around 1e8 as a typical value. In the last post, I gave some real-life examples that I have personally lived through and verified - and they validate the 1e8 value. But perhaps you're […]

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June 14, 2016
Bayesian evaluation for the likelihood of Christ's resurrection (Part 13)

Here are some more examples from which you can estimate the Bayes' factors for an earnest, personal human testimony. Imagine that you've promised to meet me on a particular date, but I don't show up to the appointment. You're understandably peeved, but then you get a phone call from me saying, "I just got into […]

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June 7, 2016
Bayesian evaluation for the likelihood of Christ's resurrection (Part 12)

My claim, at its heart, is very simple: the evidence of the many people claiming to have seen the risen Christ is abundantly sufficient to overcome any prior skepticism about a dead man coming back to life. My argument consists of backing up that statement with Bayesian reasoning and empirically derived probability values. The emphasis […]

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