NaClhv

Theology, philosophy, science, math, and random other things
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  
September 27, 2016
Bayesian evaluation for the likelihood of Christ's resurrection (Part 28)

(Continued from the previous post) Miscellaneous thoughts Here's a few more assorted thoughts: I still think that you're too afraid of large odds. For example, my gut feeling is that 99.99% is far too small a limit on how certain we can be in history. I mean, we can make meaningful, almost empirical statements about […]

Read More
September 20, 2016
Bayesian evaluation for the likelihood of Christ's resurrection (Part 27)

(Continued from the previous post) Planning out the stages of the whole argument So, all that gives us that Bayes' factor of 1e54. Now, as I've said I'm okay with its large magnitude, under the specification that this is for a certain model evaluated under some well-justified degree of independence. Given its large value, Jesus […]

Read More
September 13, 2016
Bayesian evaluation for the likelihood of Christ's resurrection (Part 26)

(Continued from the previous post) The "license plate effect", and its applicability to my calculations Now, I acknowledge that your "license plate effect" is in fact real - that 1e8 can be split between the "license plate effect" and the remaining "human honesty factor". But for the examples that I provided, I disagree that the […]

Read More
September 5, 2016
Bayesian evaluation for the likelihood of Christ's resurrection (Part 25)

And now, time for a short interlude in this series. I've been in communication with Aron Wall of Undivided Looking. It's a great blog that people should check out, which covers much of the same subject matters as my blog. I've asked him for feedback on my series, and he graciously replied back with a […]

Read More
Copyright