# NaClhv

Theology, philosophy, science, math, and random other things

December 29, 2014
New banner and icon for the blog

I've decided to try my hand at graphics design, to draw the banner and the icon for this blog. The following are some earlier drafts. Hopefully, they illuminate the meaning behind the blog's name. Here are the results, the final designs for the banner and the icon. They're what appears on the blog now. You […]

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December 22, 2014
Merry Christmas! And happy one year anniversary for this blog!

Jesus asked his disciples, "what about you? Who do you say I am?" The following is a selection of the things I've said about Jesus in various posts, in the year since I started this blog. This is who I say he is. Merry Christmas! What does it mean that Christ created the world? It […]

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December 15, 2014
Basic Bayesian reasoning: a better way to think (Part 4)

Have you read the last several posts? In those posts we began the tale of Alice and Bob, a pair of murder suspects who recently started dating one another. Through their sordid tale, we'll examine Bayesian reasoning, the scientific method, and the so-called fallacy of "affirming the consequent". Alice and Bob are going through a […]

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December 8, 2014
Basic Bayesian reasoning: a better way to think (Part 3)

In my last post, I introduced Bayes' theorem: P(hypothesis|observation) = P(observation|hypothesis)/P(observation) * P(hypothesis) Now, this is a powerful equation that tells us how to use observed evidence to update our beliefs about a hypothesis. But as I mentioned, it has two difficulties with its use: first, the probability prior to the observation - P(hypothesis) - […]

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December 1, 2014
Basic Bayesian reasoning: a better way to think (Part 2)

Image: portrait of Thomas Bayes, public domain In my previous post, I explained that instead of thinking of logical statements as only being "true" or "false", we should assign probability values for their chance of being true. This is the fundamental tenet of Bayesian reasoning. This allows us to employ the entire mathematical field of […]

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