NaClhv

Theology, philosophy, science, math, and random other things
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  

Easter, perfect play, and the best of all possible histories

Some have said that if a perfect God exists, then we must live in the best of all possible worlds. Others have said that since this is clearly not the case, God cannot exist. Others still have said that we must actually live in the worst of all possible worlds, since if it were any worse it could not continue to exist. What should we make of these observations, and how are they related to games?

How to handle the Delta variant

The vaccine may be only 39% effective against infections by the Delta variant.

Granted, this is just in one study from Israel, for just certain kinds of vaccines. But still, I've spent a great deal of time over the last week thinking about this number. Why is this such a big deal? Because, if this is true, and if that 39% holds constants across a variety of circumstances, then we're in a lot of trouble. This would mean that the Delta variant would be unstoppable, EVEN WITH THE VACCINE.

Evidence for a historical Adam and Eve

Here is my claim: the scientific contents of my interpretation is a major piece of evidence for the veracity of the biblical account of Adam and Eve, and for Christianity as a whole. In other words, I’m not settling for mere “compatibility” with the known sciences; what we have here is actual, strong, positive evidence, and everyone needs to adjust their beliefs accordingly.

A record of the total solar eclipse on 2020-12-14

The covid pandemic added a new layer of difficulty to everything. Combined with the other challenges intrinsic to such an endeavor, I felt like everything was fighting me every step of the way. In fact, I initially conceptualized this trip as a sequence overcoming these difficulties: I was going to impose my will upon the world in the face of these challenges, and bring about my intended results. We'll see how that turned out.

Presenting my argument for the resurrection to the McLean Bible Church

Last week, I presented my argument for Jesus's resurrection, in an hour-and-a-half talk given to MCB Apologetics - a ministry of the McLean Bible Church. And it went really, really well! The organizer (who's a high school friend of mine) told me that he thought the talk went incredibly well, that it was really fantastic. […]

Bayesian evaluation for the likelihood of Christ's resurrection (Easter 2020)

This was the state of the "Bayesian evaluation for the likelihood of Christ's resurrection" post, as of Easter 2020. This post will remain unchanged, while the linked post above will have further edits. I also put up a Facebook post on that date, which is essentially the same as the 2019 Facebook post. The offer […]

Interpreting the Genesis creation story

So we (and many others) all independently arrived at this new interpretation of the Genesis creation story - which I believe to be absolutely groundbreaking. It compromises nothing, either on the inerrancy of the Scriptures, or on the data on evolution. It harmonizes all the relevant scientific, historical, and biblical facts. In fact, I now consider the whole creation/evolution debate to be a "solved problem" at the highest levels.

Bayesian evaluation for the likelihood of Christ's resurrection (Easter 2019)

This was the state of the "Bayesian evaluation for the likelihood of Christ's resurrection" post, as of Easter 2019, in the "third draft" form. Some of the formatting has been lost in the blog migration, particularly in the Jupyter notebooks, but the content has been retained. This post will remain unchanged, while the other post […]
2018-07-23

A presentation on Bayesian hierarchical modeling

This is a slide deck that I put together for my day job. It explains Bayesian hierarchical modeling. Bayesian hierarchical modeling (slide deck) Bayesian hierarchical modeling (pdf) It's given in the context of A/B testing and multiple comparisons, and assumes some knowledge of Beta distributions - but even if you don't have that background, it […]
2018-07-10

A small addendum to the Bayesian evaluation of the resurrection

When faced with the argument presented in Bayesian evaluation for the likelihood of Christ's resurrection, a common tactic is to try to push the prior lower. After all, this is one of the very few options available when one has no evidence on their side. But as I argued in the post itself, this will not […]
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