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Bayesian evaluation for the likelihood of Christ's resurrection (Part 7)

Yet another class of objections may argue for 1e8 being too large, on the basis of people being intentionally deceptive rather than being mistaken. It may go like this: "1e8 is a ridiculously large Bayes' factor for people's testimonies. People lie all the time. Do you really think that only 1 out of 1e8 things […]

Bayesian evaluation for the likelihood of Christ's resurrection (Part 6)

Another class of objections would try to argue that the Bayes' factors I used in my argument are too large. One possible objection along this line of thought might go like this: "1e8 is a ridiculously large Bayes' factor for people's testimonies. People make mistakes all the time in their testimonies. Do you not know, […]
2016-04-18

Bayesian evaluation for the likelihood of Christ's resurrection (Part 5)

One possible class of objections would try to argue that the prior probability for the resurrection wasn't small enough. So one may say: "It's not just that people don't rise from the dead. NO supernatural claim of ANY KIND has EVER been validated in a controlled setting. Therefore the prior probability for the resurrection must […]

Bayesian evaluation for the likelihood of Christ's resurrection (Part 4)

Now that we have all the necessary numerical values, we can finally calculate the probability that Jesus rose from the dead. To begin, I gave the prior odds for Jesus's resurrection as 1e-22. This number was obtained from the argument that "empirically, people do not rise from the dead. Therefore, Jesus also couldn't have risen […]

Bayesian evaluation for the likelihood of Christ's resurrection (Part 3)

The previously given probability value for the resurrection - 0.000 000 000 000 000 000 000 1 (which can also be written as 10^-22, or 1e-22) - is a prior probability. That is, it's the probability based on the background information, taking into consideration the fact that Jesus was human, and that humans don't rise […]

Bayesian evaluation for the likelihood of Christ's resurrection (Part 2)

What is the probability that Jesus rose from the dead? Here I'm going to construct a foolish partner to advance certain arguments. This is just a rhetorical device. I have to be careful to not commit a straw man here, nor do I wish to insult anyone. I don't intend to imply that anyone actually […]

Bayesian evaluation for the likelihood of Christ's resurrection (Part 1)

Let's say that you're meeting someone new. You talk for a while, and the conversation turns to birthdays. You reveal that you were born in January, and your new friend says, "Oh, really? I was born in January too!" He seems earnest - he's not obviously joking, sarcastic, or ingratiating. From the little you know […]

A common mistake in Bayesian reasoning

You and your friend are investigating a murder, and you have following conversation: You:Alice is obviously the culprit. The knife has her fingerprints on it.  Your friend:Why are you ruling out Bob? It could have been Carol or Dan, too. Or anyone else, for that matter.  You:Um... because of the knife with the fingerprints I […]

Basic Bayesian reasoning: a better way to think (Part 4)

Have you read the last several posts? In those posts we began the tale of Alice and Bob, a pair of murder suspects who recently started dating one another. Through their sordid tale, we'll examine Bayesian reasoning, the scientific method, and the so-called fallacy of "affirming the consequent". Alice and Bob are going through a […]
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