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Bayesian evaluation for the likelihood of Christ's resurrection (Part 14)

We are calculating empirical values for the Bayes' factor of a sincere, personal human testimony. Several lines of calculations have all converged around 1e8 as a typical value. In the last post, I gave some real-life examples that I have personally lived through and verified - and they validate the 1e8 value. But perhaps you're […]

Bayesian evaluation for the likelihood of Christ's resurrection (Part 13)

Here are some more examples from which you can estimate the Bayes' factors for an earnest, personal human testimony. Imagine that you've promised to meet me on a particular date, but I don't show up to the appointment. You're understandably peeved, but then you get a phone call from me saying, "I just got into […]

Bayesian evaluation for the likelihood of Christ's resurrection (Part 12)

My claim, at its heart, is very simple: the evidence of the many people claiming to have seen the risen Christ is abundantly sufficient to overcome any prior skepticism about a dead man coming back to life. My argument consists of backing up that statement with Bayesian reasoning and empirically derived probability values. The emphasis […]

Bayesian evaluation for the likelihood of Christ's resurrection (Part 11)

We've just touched on the lack of evidence for doubting the resurrection. This is important, because it allows me to answer all the other skeptical arguments and distinguish my argument from them. A skeptical reader may wonder whether I've ignored any evidence against the resurrection, or how I would answer this or that argument from […]

Bayesian evaluation for the likelihood of Christ's resurrection (Part 10)

Here is another typical attempt to deny Christ's resurrection: "It may be that some of the disciples were crazy or especially grief-stricken after Jesus's crucifixion. This lead them to see some vivid visions of Jesus, which they related to the other disciples. Some of these other disciples, who had not seen the visions themselves, then […]

Bayesian evaluation for the likelihood of Christ's resurrection (Part 9)

After hearing many objections in succession as we just have, it's easy to lose sight of the big picture. For instance, one may fall into the trap of thinking that if even one of these objections has even the slightest chance of being true, the argument would fall apart. But is that really the case? […]

Bayesian evaluation for the likelihood of Christ's resurrection (Part 8)

Another class of objections would just argue that the witnesses to the resurrection were crazy: "Obviously anyone who claims that they saw someone coming back from the dead is crazy. How can we take their stories about these outlandish miracles seriously? Clearly there was something mentally wrong with these people, and we ought to dismiss […]

Bayesian evaluation for the likelihood of Christ's resurrection (Part 7)

Yet another class of objections may argue for 1e8 being too large, on the basis of people being intentionally deceptive rather than being mistaken. It may go like this: "1e8 is a ridiculously large Bayes' factor for people's testimonies. People lie all the time. Do you really think that only 1 out of 1e8 things […]

Bayesian evaluation for the likelihood of Christ's resurrection (Part 6)

Another class of objections would try to argue that the Bayes' factors I used in my argument are too large. One possible objection along this line of thought might go like this: "1e8 is a ridiculously large Bayes' factor for people's testimonies. People make mistakes all the time in their testimonies. Do you not know, […]
2016-04-18

Bayesian evaluation for the likelihood of Christ's resurrection (Part 5)

One possible class of objections would try to argue that the prior probability for the resurrection wasn't small enough. So one may say: "It's not just that people don't rise from the dead. NO supernatural claim of ANY KIND has EVER been validated in a controlled setting. Therefore the prior probability for the resurrection must […]
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