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Bayesian evaluation for the likelihood of Christ's resurrection (Part 4)

Now that we have all the necessary numerical values, we can finally calculate the probability that Jesus rose from the dead. To begin, I gave the prior odds for Jesus's resurrection as 1e-22. This number was obtained from the argument that "empirically, people do not rise from the dead. Therefore, Jesus also couldn't have risen […]

Bayesian evaluation for the likelihood of Christ's resurrection (Part 3)

The previously given probability value for the resurrection - 0.000 000 000 000 000 000 000 1 (which can also be written as 10^-22, or 1e-22) - is a prior probability. That is, it's the probability based on the background information, taking into consideration the fact that Jesus was human, and that humans don't rise […]

Bayesian evaluation for the likelihood of Christ's resurrection (Part 2)

What is the probability that Jesus rose from the dead? Here I'm going to construct a foolish partner to advance certain arguments. This is just a rhetorical device. I have to be careful to not commit a straw man here, nor do I wish to insult anyone. I don't intend to imply that anyone actually […]

Bayesian evaluation for the likelihood of Christ's resurrection (Part 1)

Let's say that you're meeting someone new. You talk for a while, and the conversation turns to birthdays. You reveal that you were born in January, and your new friend says, "Oh, really? I was born in January too!" He seems earnest - he's not obviously joking, sarcastic, or ingratiating. From the little you know […]

On martyrdom - the value of a human life (part 3)

A human life is worth about 10 million dollars. That is the market rate for an American life. In other parts of the world - say, sub-Saharan Africa, where malaria is widespread, the value of a human life is less - only about $3000. I know this, because I could save such a life for that […]

On martyrdom - a parable (Part 2)

There was once a man who loved his family very much. He had a lovely wife, two adorable children, and a big, friendly dog. He always brought a portrait of his family where ever he went: of course, there was an enlarged copy of it hanging in the living room of his home. There was […]

How to think about the future

This post is a consolidation of a whole series of posts into one post. It's fairly long. Click on the following entries in the table of contents below to jump directly there: The future is completely unpredictable It turns out that the future is completely unpredictable. That may seem like a trivial statement. But most […]

How to think about the future (Conclusion)

Trying to predict the future is a good way to put your foot in your mouth. It's hard enough to just think about the future, let alone predict it. Even in this series of posts, all I have done is provide some rules of thumb: the future is impossible to predict. The future will be […]

How to think about the future (Part 4)

What I am about to say in this post is less certain than what I have said in the previous posts; it's a half-formed thought, which I only post because I think it may be more important than my other thoughts, especially regarding the future of human society. In short, this post will more nebulous compared […]

How to think about the future (Part 3)

It's easy to predict the future. It'll be basically like the past. How could that be? Isn't everything changing all the time? Are we not living in an era of unprecedented growth and technological advancement? Isn't the world not only changing, but changing faster and faster? I mean, just look at the graph of the […]
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