NaClhv

Theology, philosophy, math, science, and random other things
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  

Coronavirus endgame: how we get back to normal

Where do we go from here? And how do we get things back to normal, as quickly as possible? Some people are fantasizing an apocalyptic future, where we stay locked in for months and venture into the virus-infected outside world only to fight over food and toilet paper. Is that what lies ahead? It's clear that our current level of suppression cannot persist indefinitely, but how will it end, and what will life look like when it does?

The coronavirus pandemic: status report on the United States

But we're all wondering whether we've done enough, and how things will turn out in the future. After all, it's the future that's scary: people often report and comment on the current numbers, but I think this is a mistake. The current numbers, of themselves, are insignificant. It's what they portend for the future, under the assumptions of exponential growth, that's the cause for alarm. That's why it's so important to break the exponential, through our efforts of social distancing and better personal hygiene.

On the coronavirus

This doesn't mean that anyone should panic, of course. You wouldn't panic over someone not wearing their seat belt, or lighting up a cigarette. But you'd clearly agree that these are bad ideas. And, again, the risks here increase exponentially with time. Soon enough it will be like getting in a car with a drunk driver. Without a seat belt. On a stormy night. For a drag race.

A book review: The Genealogical Adam and Eve

[T]he idea of Adam and Eve as a recent common ancestor is absolutely groundbreaking, and Dr. Swamidass does an excellent job of explaining it. Personally, I've been thinking about how to interpret the Genesis creation story for a very long time - most of my life, really - and this idea was the key piece that finally put everything in place for me. It opens up many interpretations, all of which compromise nothing on the inerrancy of the Scriptures, or the scientific data on evolution.

Bayesian evaluation for the likelihood of Christ's resurrection (Easter 2019)

This was the state of the "Bayesian evaluation for the likelihood of Christ's resurrection" post, as of Easter 2019, in the "third draft" form. Some of the formatting has been lost in the blog migration, particularly in the Jupyter notebooks, but the content has been retained. This post will remain unchanged, while the other post […]

My facebook post on Easter 2019

This is a copy of my post on Facebook, which I put up on Easter. It is here as a fixed-link reference for people who don't frequent Facebook. The $20,000 offer is currently only open to people who are at least a friend-of-a-friend with me. But I do want all of my readers to know […]
2018-07-23

A presentation on Bayesian hierarchical modeling

This is a slide deck that I put together for my day job. It explains Bayesian hierarchical modeling. Bayesian hierarchical modeling (slide deck) Bayesian hierarchical modeling (pdf) It's given in the context of A/B testing and multiple comparisons, and assumes some knowledge of Beta distributions - but even if you don't have that background, it […]

My facebook post on Easter

This is a copy of my post on Facebook, which I put up on Easter. It is here as a fixed-link reference for my friends who don't frequent Facebook. The $10,000 offer is currently only open to my personal friends. But I do want all of my readers to know what's going on with my […]

Bayesian evaluation for the likelihood of Christ's resurrection (frozen copy)

This was the state of the "Bayesian evaluation for the likelihood of Christ's resurrection" post, as of Easter 2018, in the "second draft" form. Some of the formatting has been lost in the blog migration, particularly in the Jupyter notebooks, but the content has been retained. This post will remain unchanged, while the other post […]

Reflections on the upcoming solar eclipse

I'm releasing this post a few days earlier than usual, as I'll be on the road trip for this eclipse at the regularly scheduled posting time. Also, this post has been cross-posted on my church's blog. God will do something great and marvelous on August 21, 2017: there will be a total eclipse of the […]
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