NaClhv

Theology, philosophy, math, science, and random other things
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  

Bayesian evaluation for the likelihood of Christ's resurrection (Part 26)

(Continued from the previous post) The "license plate effect", and its applicability to my calculations Now, I acknowledge that your "license plate effect" is in fact real - that 1e8 can be split between the "license plate effect" and the remaining "human honesty factor". But for the examples that I provided, I disagree that the […]

Bayesian evaluation for the likelihood of Christ's resurrection (Part 25)

And now, time for a short interlude in this series. I've been in communication with Aron Wall of Undivided Looking. It's a great blog that people should check out, which covers much of the same subject matters as my blog. I've asked him for feedback on my series, and he graciously replied back with a […]

Bayesian evaluation for the likelihood of Christ's resurrection (Part 18)

We are interested in quantifying the Bayes' factor for the testimonies concerning Christ's resurrection. We will do so by comparing the level of evidence for Christ's resurrection against the level of evidence we find in world history through a naturalistic process and outlook. Here is how the procedure will work: As a conservative estimate, let […]

Bayesian evaluation for the likelihood of Christ's resurrection (Part 17)

So, our previous Bayesian analysis of the resurrection compels us to believe that Jesus really rose from the dead. But, as an additional layer of verification, let's approach the problem from a slightly different angle, and see if we come to the same conclusion. In our Bayesian analysis, the odds for Jesus's resurrection went from […]

Bayesian evaluation for the likelihood of Christ's resurrection (Part 16)

Let us summarize our investigation into the Bayes' factor for a human testimony. At the beginning of this series, we began by examining our gut feelings on how much credit we would give to someone who claims to have won the lottery or been struck by lightning. From this initial calculation, using just some intuition, […]

Bayesian evaluation for the likelihood of Christ's resurrection (Part 15)

Here is yet another example from which we can empirically derive the Bayes' factor for a human testimony. The September 11 terrorist attacks killed about 3000 people. It is the worst terrorist attack in world history to date. As such, it caused a great deal of shared grief and an outpouring of sympathy for the […]

Bayesian evaluation for the likelihood of Christ's resurrection (Part 14)

We are calculating empirical values for the Bayes' factor of a sincere, personal human testimony. Several lines of calculations have all converged around 1e8 as a typical value. In the last post, I gave some real-life examples that I have personally lived through and verified - and they validate the 1e8 value. But perhaps you're […]

Bayesian evaluation for the likelihood of Christ's resurrection (Part 13)

Here are some more examples from which you can estimate the Bayes' factors for an earnest, personal human testimony. Imagine that you've promised to meet me on a particular date, but I don't show up to the appointment. You're understandably peeved, but then you get a phone call from me saying, "I just got into […]

Bayesian evaluation for the likelihood of Christ's resurrection (Part 12)

My claim, at its heart, is very simple: the evidence of the many people claiming to have seen the risen Christ is abundantly sufficient to overcome any prior skepticism about a dead man coming back to life. My argument consists of backing up that statement with Bayesian reasoning and empirically derived probability values. The emphasis […]

Bayesian evaluation for the likelihood of Christ's resurrection (Part 10)

Here is another typical attempt to deny Christ's resurrection: "It may be that some of the disciples were crazy or especially grief-stricken after Jesus's crucifixion. This lead them to see some vivid visions of Jesus, which they related to the other disciples. Some of these other disciples, who had not seen the visions themselves, then […]
1 2 3 4 5 6
Copyright