Theology, philosophy, science, math, and random other things

Basic Bayesian reasoning: a better way to think (Part 3)

In my last post, I introduced Bayes' theorem: P(hypothesis|observation) = P(observation|hypothesis)/P(observation) * P(hypothesis) Now, this is a powerful equation that tells us how to use observed evidence to update our beliefs about a hypothesis. But as I mentioned, it has two difficulties with its use: first, the probability prior to the observation - P(hypothesis) - […]

Basic Bayesian reasoning: a better way to think (Part 2)

In my previous post, I explained that instead of thinking of logical statements as only being "true" or "false", we should assign probability values for their chance of being true. This is the fundamental tenet of Bayesian reasoning. This allows us to employ the entire mathematical field of probability theory in our thinking and expands […]

Basic Bayesian reasoning: a better way to think (Part 1)

What is Bayesian inference? I've already mentioned it in several of my previous posts, and I'm sure to bring it up again in the future. I obviously think it's important. Why? Bayesian inference is the mathematical extension of propositional logic using probability theory. It is superior to deductive propositional logic, which is what many people […]

How to make a fractal

Click Here for a video tutorial of how to use this program! You may next want to read:Sherlock Bayes, logical detective: a murder mystery game15 puzzle: a tile sliding gameHow is God related to all other fields of study?Another post, from the table of contents

What is "evidence"? What counts as evidence for a certain position?

"Proof" is one of those words that are abused nearly to the point of meaninglessness. I generally only use it in math-related contexts. I prefer the word "evidence" over "proof". So, instead of saying "This test score proves you didn't do your homework", I'd rather say "This test score is evidence that you didn't do […]
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