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A common mistake in Bayesian reasoning

You and your friend are investigating a murder, and you have following conversation: You:Alice is obviously the culprit. The knife has her fingerprints on it.  Your friend:Why are you ruling out Bob? It could have been Carol or Dan, too. Or anyone else, for that matter.  You:Um... because of the knife with the fingerprints I […]
2015-01-19

Questions from seekers - short answers to common questions (Part 3)

This is a continuation of my previous post. The same caveats mentioned there apply. Q: What happens to people who never hear about God? A: This is essentially asking what happens to those who are not given enough knowledge to be held accountable. Quite honestly, I'm not sure. But there are some guidelines that we can […]
2015-01-12

Questions from seekers - short answers to common questions (Part 2)

This is a continuation of my previous post. The same caveats mentioned there apply. Q: What happens to Christians when they don't pray for forgiveness of their sins? (whether they know it's wrong or not) does God forgive? Forget? A: To answer this question, it is useful to remember that God is a friend. In […]
2015-01-05

Questions from seekers - short answers to common questions (Part 1)

I once ran a college small group for new Christians and non-Christians. Here are some questions I got from this group, and my answers to these questions. They've been edited slightly for clarity and minor changes in my views, but they're otherwise presented as they were presented to the students. Enjoy! Two things to keep […]

Merry Christmas! And happy one year anniversary for this blog!

Jesus asked his disciples, "what about you? Who do you say I am?" The following is a selection of the things I've said about Jesus in various posts, in the year since I started this blog. This is who I say he is. Merry Christmas! What does it mean that Christ created the world? It […]

Basic Bayesian reasoning: a better way to think (Part 4)

Have you read the last several posts? In those posts we began the tale of Alice and Bob, a pair of murder suspects who recently started dating one another. Through their sordid tale, we'll examine Bayesian reasoning, the scientific method, and the so-called fallacy of "affirming the consequent". Alice and Bob are going through a […]

Basic Bayesian reasoning: a better way to think (Part 3)

In my last post, I introduced Bayes' theorem: P(hypothesis|observation) = P(observation|hypothesis)/P(observation) * P(hypothesis) Now, this is a powerful equation that tells us how to use observed evidence to update our beliefs about a hypothesis. But as I mentioned, it has two difficulties with its use: first, the probability prior to the observation - P(hypothesis) - […]

Basic Bayesian reasoning: a better way to think (Part 2)

In my previous post, I explained that instead of thinking of logical statements as only being "true" or "false", we should assign probability values for their chance of being true. This is the fundamental tenet of Bayesian reasoning. This allows us to employ the entire mathematical field of probability theory in our thinking and expands […]

Basic Bayesian reasoning: a better way to think (Part 1)

What is Bayesian inference? I've already mentioned it in several of my previous posts, and I'm sure to bring it up again in the future. I obviously think it's important. Why? Bayesian inference is the mathematical extension of propositional logic using probability theory. It is superior to deductive propositional logic, which is what many people […]

The dialogue between two aliens who found a book on Earth

Alice and Bob are two aliens. In their interstellar journey, they pass by Earth and there picked up a book. Some time afterwards, they meet to discuss their new acquisition. Alice:So, have you had a chance to look at that Terran artifact that we got? Bob:I have. It has many fascinating properties. I and my […]
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