NaClhv

Theology, philosophy, math, science, and random other things
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  

From my job: technical career storyline

I've mentioned before that I work as a data scientist. I've been at it for a long while now. Long enough, in fact, that they interviewed me at my job about what it was like to be me, and published the interview internally as part of their "technical career storyline" feature. The following are the contents of that interview, reproduced with permission and some minor editing.

The justice of the reprobates' eternal punishment in hell

Hell does not necessarily impose an infinite punishment, and the sins of the reprobate are not necessarily finite. Biblical Christianity is perfectly flexible on both of these points. Either one of them, in isolation, is enough to fully answer the objection of "infinitely disproportionate punishment", and we have both. So we can say with confidence that the reprobate in hell will get exactly what they deserve - the exact right level of punishment commensurate with their sins.

Easter, perfect play, and the best of all possible histories

Some have said that if a perfect God exists, then we must live in the best of all possible worlds. Others have said that since this is clearly not the case, God cannot exist. Others still have said that we must actually live in the worst of all possible worlds, since if it were any worse it could not continue to exist. What should we make of these observations, and how are they related to games?

Evidence for a historical Adam and Eve

Here is my claim: the scientific contents of my interpretation is a major piece of evidence for the veracity of the biblical account of Adam and Eve, and for Christianity as a whole. In other words, I’m not settling for mere “compatibility” with the known sciences; what we have here is actual, strong, positive evidence, and everyone needs to adjust their beliefs accordingly.

Presenting my argument for the resurrection to the McLean Bible Church

Last week, I presented my argument for Jesus's resurrection, in an hour-and-a-half talk given to MCB Apologetics - a ministry of the McLean Bible Church. And it went really, really well! The organizer (who's a high school friend of mine) told me that he thought the talk went incredibly well, that it was really fantastic. […]

Re-analyzing the Stanford COVID-19 antibody study

Stanford's antibody study in Santa Clara County [...] reported a population prevalence of 2.5% to 4.2% for COVID-19 antibodies, and a corresponding infection fatality rate of 0.12% to 0.2%. This result, if true, would have huge implications, as the lower fatality rate would dramatically change the calculus on important policy decisions [...]. However, this study has also received numerous criticisms, most notably for the results being inconsistent with the false positive rate of the antibody test. Here, I attempt to derive what the results ought to have been, under a better methodology.

Bayesian evaluation for the likelihood of Christ's resurrection (Easter 2020)

This was the state of the "Bayesian evaluation for the likelihood of Christ's resurrection" post, as of Easter 2020. This post will remain unchanged, while the linked post above will have further edits. I also put up a Facebook post on that date, which is essentially the same as the 2019 Facebook post. The offer […]

The coronavirus pandemic: status report on the United States

But we're all wondering whether we've done enough, and how things will turn out in the future. After all, it's the future that's scary: people often report and comment on the current numbers, but I think this is a mistake. The current numbers, of themselves, are insignificant. It's what they portend for the future, under the assumptions of exponential growth, that's the cause for alarm. That's why it's so important to break the exponential, through our efforts of social distancing and better personal hygiene.

Bayesian evaluation for the likelihood of Christ's resurrection (Easter 2019)

This was the state of the "Bayesian evaluation for the likelihood of Christ's resurrection" post, as of Easter 2019, in the "third draft" form. Some of the formatting has been lost in the blog migration, particularly in the Jupyter notebooks, but the content has been retained. This post will remain unchanged, while the other post […]
2018-07-23

A presentation on Bayesian hierarchical modeling

This is a slide deck that I put together for my day job. It explains Bayesian hierarchical modeling. Bayesian hierarchical modeling (slide deck) Bayesian hierarchical modeling (pdf) It's given in the context of A/B testing and multiple comparisons, and assumes some knowledge of Beta distributions - but even if you don't have that background, it […]
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